Germany's spy chiefs warn Russia could attack NATO at any moment
6 min read
Germany's top intelligence chiefs issued stark warnings to lawmakers Monday that Russia poses an immediate military threat to Europe and is prepared to escalate tensions into direct confrontation with NATO at any moment.
The unprecedented briefing comes as Russian hybrid warfare operations intensify across the continent, with recent drone incursions and airspace violations raising alarm among Western allies.
Intelligence Chiefs Sound Alarm
Martin Jäger, who heads Germany's foreign intelligence service BND and previously served as ambassador to Ukraine, told the Bundestag that Russia is systematically testing European borders and could trigger a "hot confrontation" without warning. "We must not sit back and assume that a possible Russian attack will not come until 2029 at the earliest," Jäger stated during the annual public hearing. "We are already under fire today".[1][2][3][4]
Jäger emphasized that Germany stands as Russia's "primary target in Europe" due to its status as the EU's largest economy and its prominent role supporting Ukraine. He warned that Moscow "will not shy away from direct military confrontation with NATO if necessary" to expand its sphere of influence westward.[2][3][5][1]
Sinan Selen, head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency BfV, reported that approximately 32,500 foreign extremists currently reside in Germany, representing a 6% increase from the previous year. He characterized Russian actions as "increasingly escalatory," noting that Moscow's intelligence services are "constantly adjusting the levels of escalation in their operations with the strategic goal of undermining liberal democracies".[6][7][1][2]
Escalating Hybrid Warfare Campaign
The warnings follow a dramatic surge in Russian hybrid operations across Europe. On September 10, NATO forces shot down multiple Russian drones that penetrated Polish airspace - marking the first direct military engagement between NATO and Russia since the Ukraine invasion began. The incident involved 19-23 drones that flew deep into Polish territory before being intercepted by Dutch F-35 fighters and Polish F-16s.[1][2][3][4]
Russian aircraft violations have also intensified. Three armed MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace for 12 minutes on September 19, prompting Estonia to invoke NATO's Article 4 for consultations. Additional drone incursions have been reported over Romania, Germany, Denmark, and Norway, with some suspected of being launched from Russian vessels in the Baltic Sea.[3][5][6][7][8][9]
These operations have disrupted civilian aviation, with airports in Munich, Germany forced to suspend flights due to drone sightings that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz attributed to Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen characterized these incidents as part of a coordinated "hybrid warfare" campaign designed to destabilize the European Union.[10][11]
Germany Prepares Tougher Response
In response to the escalating threat, Jäger announced that the BND will adopt more aggressive operational methods and "take higher risks in a targeted and consistent manner" to gather intelligence on adversaries. He urged lawmakers to expand the agency's authority to match "the realities of our new era," warning that "restraint and leniency are interpreted as weakness by our opponents such as Russia".[1][2]
NATO has launched Operation Eastern Sentry to bolster air defenses along its eastern flank, while the EU is developing plans for a "drone wall" along its borders with Russia and Belarus. The alliance has also conducted extended patrol missions near the Russian border, including a 12-hour joint UK-US flight on October 9.[3][4][5][6]
The intelligence briefing underscores growing concerns that Europe faces its most serious security threat since the Cold War, with officials warning that Russia's campaign of intimidation could escalate into open conflict at any moment.
Reference sources:
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