Thai gold prices jump 100 baht on trade tensions

Thai gold prices opened higher by 100 baht on Monday, October 20, 2025, as global investors continued their flight to safe-haven assets amid ongoing US-China trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding upcoming Trump-Putin diplomatic talks. Gold bar prices reached 66,100 baht per baht-weight, while ornament gold climbed to 66,900 baht per baht-weight, according to the Thai Gold Traders Association.​

The price increase reflects broader global momentum, with spot gold trading at $4,264.50 per ounce and the Thai baht at 32.73 per US dollar. Gold has surged more than 60% year-to-date in 2025, marking one of its strongest annual performances since 1979.​

International gold markets have experienced unprecedented demand, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF attracting over $1.6 billion in daily inflows. Total gold ETF assets under management reached approximately $445 billion by August 2025, representing the highest inflows since the 2020 peak.[1][2]

"Gold and Silver continued to mark new all-time highs last week as well, only to lose strength on the last day," according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services analysts. The surge has been driven by "safe haven buying amid renewed US-China trade tensions and deepening geopolitical and economic uncertainties".[3]

Central banks have maintained aggressive purchasing, with global institutions adding a net 19 tonnes to reserves in August alone. The People's Bank of China reported its 11th consecutive monthly gold purchase, adding 1.2 tonnes in September. India's central bank gold reserves crossed the $100 billion threshold for the first time as prices surged.[4][5][6]

President Trump's recent statements regarding US-China trade relations have created mixed signals for markets. While Trump initially threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports to take effect November 1st, he later indicated such measures "would not be sustainable in the long run", providing some relief to trade war concerns.[1][2][3]

The escalating tensions prompted China to implement export controls on critical rare earth elements, including dysprosium and yttrium, effective December 1, 2025. China also introduced escalating port fees for US cargo ships, starting at $56 per ton and projected to reach $157 per ton by April 2028.[4]

Trump confirmed plans for a second meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary, following their inconclusive Alaska summit in August 2025. The previous Alaska meeting ended without agreement, though Trump suggested the focus should shift to Ukraine making territorial concessions. Market analysts view the diplomatic uncertainty as supporting gold's safe-haven appeal.[5][6][7][8][9]

Thai market experts have revised their price targets upward, with the Gold Traders Association now forecasting domestic gold could reach 64,000 baht per baht-weight by year-end. Some projections suggest prices could hit 70,000 baht in 2025.[1][2]

Technical analysis shows gold maintaining strong bullish momentum above key support levels at $4,200 per ounce, though some analysts warn of potential short-term consolidation after the rapid price appreciation. HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast and projected gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026.[3][4][5][6]

Gold's resilience stems from multiple factors beyond geopolitical tensions, including expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistent inflation concerns, and ongoing de-dollarization efforts by central banks worldwide.[7][8]

[1](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/banking-finance/40056777)

[2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoRsm5j4e_c)

[3](https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/10/gold-analysis-16-october-2025/235617)

[4](https://www.economies.com/commodities/gold-analysis/gold-price-begins-its-recovery--analysis-20-10-2025-121995)

[5](https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/10/gold-forecast-20-october-2025/235681)

[6](https://economictimes.com/news/international/us/gold-price-falls-on-friday-after-hitting-record-high-level-check-latest-gold-rate-prediction/articleshow/124631817.cms)

[7](https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/central-banks-gold-reserves-2025-trends-implications/)

[8](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/gold-record-run-sell-traditional-60-40-stock-bond-market-portfolio.html)

[1](https://www.pptvhd36.com/wealth/stock-investment/259556)

[2](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-hits-record-high-us-china-trade-woes-escalate-silver-scales-all-time-peak-2025-10-13/)

[3](https://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-at-5-000-on-cards-as-investors-get-comfortable-f571f119)

[4](http://markets.chroniclejournal.com/chroniclejournal/article/marketminute-2025-10-16-gold-shines-as-us-china-trade-war-escalates-driving-prices-to-record-highs)

[5](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cy85d9613zxt)

[6](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-putin-speak-before-zelenskiys-white-house-visit-axios-reports-2025-10-16/)

[7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Russia%E2%80%93United_States_Summit_in_Alaska)

[8](https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/10/gold-analysis-16-october-2025/235617)

[9](https://blog.oneuptrader.com/analysis/technical-analysis/gold-futures-gc-technical-analysis-15-october-2025/)

[1](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/daily-etf-flows-1-6b-210004945.html)

[2](https://markets.financialcontent.com/ridgwayrecord/article/marketminute-2025-10-6-gold-smashes-records-nearing-4000-as-etf-inflows-fuel-historic-rally)

[3](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gold-price-prediction-what-is-the-gold-rate-outlook-for-october-20-2025-diwali-week-should-you-buy-or-sell-mcx-gold/articleshow/124699807.cms)

[4](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/10/central-bank-gold-statistics-central-bank-gold-buying-rebounds-august)

[5](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/10/china-gold-market-update-wholesale-demand-rebounded)

[6](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-central-banks-gold-pile-tops-100-billion-surging-bullion-prices-2025-10-17/)